U.S session December 03, 2014

U.S Session News Release Today.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is the most awaited news by traders, because the effect of the news can be categorized great, so that made reference to gain, with expectations of 223k or lower than the previous of 230K so it is likely the USD weakened on this day. This is supported by other data releases such forecasts Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, the Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Final Services PMI which is expected to be worse than before.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, predicted improved from the previous 57.1 to 57.5. Market participants are also still waiting for comments from FOMC members that Plosser and Brainard. Until this article was written, the USD/JPY is in a position 119.44 or rose 30 points on the day.

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Market: Important Notice on New York Sesion

Market Tone: Aussie and British pound soared as economic data topped estimates successfully trigger a rally two currencies. In Australia the rate of GDP reported up 0.6% above the estimated 0.5% and a strong reason for the RBA to remain neutral on monetary policy yesterday. While the services sector is estimated that the UK rocketed beyond confirming the UK economic momentum despite the unemployment rate is still relatively high. Separately European regional shares and U.S. stock market futures are still in Syria worries overshadowed pressure.

Fed's Beige Book: The focus of investors will be focused on the release of the Fed's Beige Book showed economic conditions that can last the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The economic data will be an important input ahead of the FOMC monetary policy meeting in 2 weeks mendetang. Beige Book also can provide a variety of information analysts to predict whether the Fed will embark reduction program of bond purchases worth $ 85 billion per month.

Fed Speakers: Attention will then be focused on two speeches scheduled Fed officials, among others, San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota who can provide further clues about the direction of the Fed's monetary.

Samsung: Samsung will launch the smartwatch newest product, called Galaxy Gear at Consumer Electronics Exhibition in Berlin. In addition it will also show off the tablet Samsung Galaxy Note 3 terabrunya. At the same time Sony also will show debuts smartphone Xperia Z1. Sony and Samsung hopes to beat the latest iPhone products which will be launched on the 10th September.

U.S. Auto Industry: The U.S. auto industry will report monthly sales rate for August is expected to rise to 15.5 million units, consistent with the level of sales in July. Overall vehicle sales in the U.S. are stabilizing.

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Gold On Bearish Pressure, Be Alert 1563.10

The movement of Gold in hourly chart seen is on bearish bias. Preference for today is bearish with 2 alternative scenarios. First, watch the Support 1563.10, if it breaks it potential trigger continue bearish movement to the range 1553.50.  

Second, Watch area between the resistance 1583.43  and resistance 1572.70, this area can be key for hunt bearish signal/pattern. If bearish signal/pattern appears in this area, it potentially triggers bearish movement aim the support 1563.10.

Ignore the preference if the resistance 1583.43 breaks, because bias bearish has change to bullish, within possibility price move upward to the range 1594.16-1603.76.

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AUD/USD remains under pressure

AUD/USD remains under pressure. Initial support is at 1.0395 which if breaks might amplify the bearish pressure that could push AUD/USD down to 1.0372 – 1.0345.

Hourly stochastic and CCI are still mixed, but it is better to prepare alternative strategy in case bullish correction occurs to the resistance area at 1.0434 – 1.0457. Bearish signal that might confirm within the area could trigger a fallback move to 1.0419 – 1.0395.

The intraday bias will turn to bullish only if the resistance at 1.0475 breaks. In that case, AUD/USD will get the chance to move up to 1.0473 – 1.0496.

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GBP/USD is in Bullish Bias, Beware of Correction

Intraday bias for GBP/USD currently is bullish. Initial resistance is at 1.5219. The bullish bias will be stronger if that resistance breaks and potentially will raise GBP/USD up to 1.5249 – 1.5282. Nevertheless, beware of correction since hourly stochastic and CCI are overbought. As alternative scenario, watch the support area at 1.5170 – 1.5140 if correction occurs to within that area to look for bullish signal confirmation as buy signal, with rebound target at 1.5189 – 1.5219.

Be careful if the support at 1.5140 breaks because it will turn the intraday bias to bearish and possibly will push GBP/USD down to 1.5121 – 1.5091.

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5 Important Things Coming to New York Session

Factors Fueling U.S. stocks and CFDs, Wednesday, March 20:

Jitters Cyprus: Cyprus Tensions are moving towards bankruptcy continues after parliament rejected Cyprus EU bailout terms. So far, banks in Cyprus are still closed until the weekend, at the same time the ECB has threatened to end emergency aid to troubled banks in the country. However there is still hope that Russia will disburse funds as it had been given to Cyprus before.

BoE Minutes: Pound jumped after struck by the BoE minutes showed that one of the reasons why the central bank did not increase the stimulus is concern about inflationary pressures in the event of additional QE BoE officials feared would lead to further weakening pound sterling thus giving the perception that the central bank failed to maintain commitment to low inflation levels. 

Fed Statement: The focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's statement after the FOMC meeting, which is expected to continue to maintain the bond purchase program of $ 85 billion per month. In addition, the market participants will be waiting for the economy and interest rate projections the Fed, particularly the unemployment outlook, in December, forecast the U.S. unemployment rate was in the range 7.4% - 7.7%. If the Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate, it will signal the strengthening of the U.S. labor market.

FedEx Earnings: Investors can also measure the pulse of the economy through FedEx earnings are expected to shrink profit over the previous year, largely due to higher jet fuel prices. Share CFDs FedEx alone has risen 17% since the beginning of this year.

Lennar Results: Signal recovery housing sector is also expected to contribute to earnings Lennar. Home builders are expected to increase sales and profits and new orders surge. Share CFDs Lennar gained 57% so far in the last year.

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Japan’s Nikkei Jumps 2 pct on Exporters, Recovers From Cyprus Blow

Japan’s Nikkei average rebounded 2 percent on Tuesday, regaining some ground lost in the previous session as fears receded that a controversial bailout proposal for Cyprus could reignite the euro zone crisis.

Analysts said that the disruption to the Japanese market from the unusual bailout plan for Cyprus seems to have run its course, although the Japanese equities market is prone to volatility because it is vulnerable to a rise in the yen when global market uncertainty increases.

“It looks like the bailout issue will be contained in Cyprus itself and it probably won’t spread to the euro zone. As the Japanese market was rallying lately, Monday’s selling served as a good opportunity for correction,” said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities. “But European debt issues will likely take years to be resolved, and we need to be prepared for a sell-off like this again as the Japanese market could easily get hit by a strong yen when investors buy the yen.”

The Nikkei added 247.60 points to 12,468.23 after sliding 2.7 percent on Monday, its biggest one-day drop in 10 months. The index is just 0.74 percent away from a 4-1/2 year high of 12,560.95 marked last Friday.

Ahead of a parliamentary vote in Cyprus that will either secure the island’s financial rescue or threaten default, euro zone ministers have urged Cyprus to let smaller savers escape a controversial levy on bank deposits.

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