AUD/USD remains under pressure

AUD/USD remains under pressure. Initial support is at 1.0395 which if breaks might amplify the bearish pressure that could push AUD/USD down to 1.0372 – 1.0345.

Hourly stochastic and CCI are still mixed, but it is better to prepare alternative strategy in case bullish correction occurs to the resistance area at 1.0434 – 1.0457. Bearish signal that might confirm within the area could trigger a fallback move to 1.0419 – 1.0395.

The intraday bias will turn to bullish only if the resistance at 1.0475 breaks. In that case, AUD/USD will get the chance to move up to 1.0473 – 1.0496.

GBP/USD is in Bullish Bias, Beware of Correction


Intraday bias for GBP/USD currently is bullish. Initial resistance is at 1.5219. The bullish bias will be stronger if that resistance breaks and potentially will raise GBP/USD up to 1.5249 – 1.5282. Nevertheless, beware of correction since hourly stochastic and CCI are overbought. As alternative scenario, watch the support area at 1.5170 – 1.5140 if correction occurs to within that area to look for bullish signal confirmation as buy signal, with rebound target at 1.5189 – 1.5219.

Be careful if the support at 1.5140 breaks because it will turn the intraday bias to bearish and possibly will push GBP/USD down to 1.5121 – 1.5091.

Euro Falls Toward 4-Month Low Versus Dollar; Drops Against Yen

The euro slid toward the lowest in almost four months against the dollar after the Cypriot parliament voted down a bank-deposit levy needed to secure a bailout, risking renewed tumult in the currency bloc.

The 17-nation currency fell for a fourth day versus the yen as an official familiar with the matter said European policy makers in Cyprus discussed further capital controls and extending a bank holiday through to the end of the week. The yen and dollar rose against most major peers as investors sought havens on concern Europe’s crisis may slide out of control.

“It’s an impasse with the Cyprus parliament rejecting the proposals from the eurogroup, and they will have to engage in further negotiations,” said Hans Kunnen, the Sydney-based chief economist at St. George Bank Ltd. “This just adds to the weight against the euro.”

The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2872 as of 9:25 a.m. in Singapore from $1.2882 in New York yesterday, when it touched $1.2844, the weakest since Nov. 22. The shared currency declined 0.3 percent to 122.18 yen and traded little changed at 1.2196 Swiss francs following a 0.5 percent drop yesterday. The dollar slid 0.3 percent to 94.92 yen. 

Japanese financial markets are closed today for a national holiday.

Important Things Before the Open Market


  • AUD has slipped back against the U.S. dollar in the early session of the Asia-Pacific region Friday earlier closure area above 1.04, last at 1.0354, off a session today at 1.0341, related to concerns from Cyprus. After falling in, it seems buying players start popping dare to catch a falling EUR prices during the European session. The euro itself has penetrated the 1:29 area just to survive near the area.
  • The majority of today's Asian bourses fell due to appear in a massive sell-off risky assets after a decision euro zone to force the depositors in the country Cyprus to contribute to the bailout, triggering fears that direct transmission of the problem to other countries in the region .
  • U.S. Crude Oil contract moved down more than $ 1 per barrel in early Asian trading session on Monday, hit by a stronger U.S. dollar.

Expectations decrease RBA Interest Rate Reduced Reference

At the end of last week, the Aussie managed to record the strongest weekly gain in 6-months ahead of the release of the meeting minutes Reserve Bank of Australia on 19 March that might provide clues about why the policy makers to keep interest rates unchanged for the 3rd time in a row.

While the data surge biggest job in 13 years, seen in the data on Thursday, has forced traders to trim expectations for RBA rate cuts.

'Expectations RBA rate cuts have reduced quite substantially, leading to a strong rebound in Aussie. I think the RBA will be more cautious, they do not want to lower interest rates too far and too fast. "Said Derek Mumford, a director at Rochford Capital in Sydney.

Data this week's data to be released from this kangaroo country is New Motor Vehicle Sales and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

When this news was revealed, the AUD / USD traded higher at 1.0374 the highest price.

Release Data Limit Appreciation Aussie Gain


After the release of the NAB business confidence survey is lower than the previous data release, which is 1 for the period from February 3 in January. AUD / USD was near weekly high at the 1.0280 level. Currently Aussie at 1.0300. Exchange rate rose 0.45% in the period of one week and -1.06% for a period of one year. ASX Australia fell 0.08% while the U.S. SP500 index closed up 0.32% near a new 5-year high, the highest increase since November 2007.

From a technical perspective the hourly chart shows indicators away from overbought levels but prices were still above the trend line and is above the SMA 20, clearly Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at Fxstreet.com. "In the 4 hours chart, the bullish movement under pressure unless the price stay above 1.0300 area. Currency appreciation is limited, "he added.

Support levels at 1.0250, 1.0220 and 1.0180, while resistance level at 1.0345.

Forex Market Hours, to know running market session

This time, I want to share to the forex market hours. This application is useful to know the session or at the market that are running, such as the Tokyo session, London, New York, Sydney.
 
How to use it:
1. Set the time zone GMT according to your zone (upper right corner)
2. In the lower right corner there is information on your zone clock
3. Figures for that column shows the clock on your zone below which no active market information.
 
Example:
I use GMT +8 then in that column shows:
 
-- 16.00 - 24.00 means that an active market is LONDON.  
-- 21:00 to 05:00 means that an active market is NEW YORK.
-- Etc.

USDJPY : Likely bullish


Time Frame D1
R3 98.51
R2 97.52
R1 96.76
Pivot 95.77
S1 95.01
S2 94.03
S3 93.27

RSI (14) 71.67

Prediction today, trend: Bullish
The above position will rise to around 98.50

EUR/USD back under strong bearish pressure



EUR/USD back under strong bearish pressure after falling from resistance at 1.3133. Price is currently engaged in a phase of consolidation approaching resistance area in the range of 1.3022 - 1.3065. Bearish signal that may be confirmed in the range is likely to be a sell signal with a target in the range of 1.2996 - 1.2954. Furthermore, the penetration of the support at 1.2954 is expected to increase and potentially bearish pressure will push EUR/USD to range 1.2912 - 1.2865.

Intraday bias will turn bullish if resistance at 1.3065 broke. If that happens, the EUR/USD is expected to move up into the range of 1.3091 - 1.3133.

GBP / USD: under pressure






GBP / USD remains under pressure, moving around the 1.4844 support. If support is broken, the GBP / USD is expected to continue to be depressed to the range of 1.4838 - 1.4786.

On the other hand stochastic and CCI 1 hour shows a bullish indication. Therefore there is the possibility of a pullback will occur towards resistance area in the range of 1.4983 - 1.5035. GBP / USD is still in a bearish bias over the last resistance, the bearish signals that may appear in this range is expected to be a sell signal with a target in the range of 1.4930 - 1.4884.

New intraday bias will turn bullish if resistance at 1.5035 broke. If that happens, GBP / USD is expected to move towards 1.5081 - 1.5110.

Dolly Trading System


This time, I will discuss one of the indicators for metatrader 4 which is phenomenal and so far profitable. This indicator named Dolly trading system. After trying and observing, the points open position according to this indicator is 20 pips above or below the opening price. If the indicator is set the target profit is 20 pips. But, I suggest you, to set a target of only 10 pips profit. why? as to minimize the risk when trading using this indicator.
 
how to use this indicator is quite easy, with the click menu of indicators -> custom -> Dolly_v13_ultimate, then will appear like this:


Click on the input and fill the content of Dolly_PassWord with "FREE_at_tsd", without the quotes. then click OK.

requirements before trading or open position :
  1. set the time frame to H1
  2. see dolly grapics #13
  3. open pending order like dolly grapics #13

You can download this indikator on this link
Indonesian's discussion thread of Dolly System on KasKus.
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