U.S Market Review on December 5, 2014

InvestClinic - In the US session today will be 3 to data released by that Non-Farm Employment Change in estimate rose from 214K into 231K, the trade balance of -43.0B strengthened to -41.3B, while unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% figure.
 
Previous dragi has not provide a strong enough signal of additional monetary stimulus, so that the EU has strengthened. The ECB also cut its growth forecast for the euro zone next year to 1.0% of the projection in September by 1.6%. 

Inflation expectations for 2015 are also reduced to only 0.7% from the previous 1.1%, well below the ECB's target of close to 2%. based on the description above can be concluded that for the news tonight in the prediction would side with the USD. For long-term euro also allegedly would have strengthened, if the issue of QE will actually be applied.

U.S. Market Review on December 04, 2014


American session possibility USD will move randomly. this is caused by unemployment claims data will be released today. in addition, the euro zone is currently in a difficult time, Mario Draghi hesitated to purchase government bonds.
 
According to daily news from Reuters, the Fed's Fischer Says buys government bonds by the ECB would have positive effects, Fischer also suggested the ECB did the same thing as the Fed's doing, so expect a positive effect for the eurozone. Until this article is issued, EUR/USD is still stagnant at 1.2315 position, predicted Euro will weaken against the US dollar within a few days up to 1.2229.

U.S session December 03, 2014

U.S Session News Release Today.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is the most awaited news by traders, because the effect of the news can be categorized great, so that made reference to gain, with expectations of 223k or lower than the previous of 230K so it is likely the USD weakened on this day. This is supported by other data releases such forecasts Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, the Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Final Services PMI which is expected to be worse than before.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, predicted improved from the previous 57.1 to 57.5. Market participants are also still waiting for comments from FOMC members that Plosser and Brainard. Until this article was written, the USD/JPY is in a position 119.44 or rose 30 points on the day.

GBP/USD is in Bullish Bias, Beware of Correction


Intraday bias for GBP/USD currently is bullish. Initial resistance is at 1.5219. The bullish bias will be stronger if that resistance breaks and potentially will raise GBP/USD up to 1.5249 – 1.5282. Nevertheless, beware of correction since hourly stochastic and CCI are overbought. As alternative scenario, watch the support area at 1.5170 – 1.5140 if correction occurs to within that area to look for bullish signal confirmation as buy signal, with rebound target at 1.5189 – 1.5219.

Be careful if the support at 1.5140 breaks because it will turn the intraday bias to bearish and possibly will push GBP/USD down to 1.5121 – 1.5091.

5 Important Things Coming to New York Session

Factors Fueling U.S. stocks and CFDs, Wednesday, March 20:

Jitters Cyprus: Cyprus Tensions are moving towards bankruptcy continues after parliament rejected Cyprus EU bailout terms. So far, banks in Cyprus are still closed until the weekend, at the same time the ECB has threatened to end emergency aid to troubled banks in the country. However there is still hope that Russia will disburse funds as it had been given to Cyprus before.

BoE Minutes: Pound jumped after struck by the BoE minutes showed that one of the reasons why the central bank did not increase the stimulus is concern about inflationary pressures in the event of additional QE BoE officials feared would lead to further weakening pound sterling thus giving the perception that the central bank failed to maintain commitment to low inflation levels. 

Fed Statement: The focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's statement after the FOMC meeting, which is expected to continue to maintain the bond purchase program of $ 85 billion per month. In addition, the market participants will be waiting for the economy and interest rate projections the Fed, particularly the unemployment outlook, in December, forecast the U.S. unemployment rate was in the range 7.4% - 7.7%. If the Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate, it will signal the strengthening of the U.S. labor market.

FedEx Earnings: Investors can also measure the pulse of the economy through FedEx earnings are expected to shrink profit over the previous year, largely due to higher jet fuel prices. Share CFDs FedEx alone has risen 17% since the beginning of this year.

Lennar Results: Signal recovery housing sector is also expected to contribute to earnings Lennar. Home builders are expected to increase sales and profits and new orders surge. Share CFDs Lennar gained 57% so far in the last year.

Japan’s Nikkei Jumps 2 pct on Exporters, Recovers From Cyprus Blow

Japan’s Nikkei average rebounded 2 percent on Tuesday, regaining some ground lost in the previous session as fears receded that a controversial bailout proposal for Cyprus could reignite the euro zone crisis.

Analysts said that the disruption to the Japanese market from the unusual bailout plan for Cyprus seems to have run its course, although the Japanese equities market is prone to volatility because it is vulnerable to a rise in the yen when global market uncertainty increases.

“It looks like the bailout issue will be contained in Cyprus itself and it probably won’t spread to the euro zone. As the Japanese market was rallying lately, Monday’s selling served as a good opportunity for correction,” said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities. “But European debt issues will likely take years to be resolved, and we need to be prepared for a sell-off like this again as the Japanese market could easily get hit by a strong yen when investors buy the yen.”

The Nikkei added 247.60 points to 12,468.23 after sliding 2.7 percent on Monday, its biggest one-day drop in 10 months. The index is just 0.74 percent away from a 4-1/2 year high of 12,560.95 marked last Friday.

Ahead of a parliamentary vote in Cyprus that will either secure the island’s financial rescue or threaten default, euro zone ministers have urged Cyprus to let smaller savers escape a controversial levy on bank deposits.

5 Important Things Coming to New York Session


JCPenney: JCPenney will get a second chance to reassure investors when the CFO Ken Hannah gave a statement at the conference retailer. Share CFDs JCPenney has plunged 20% after it reported sales fall by 30% last quarter.

 Retail Sales: The next focus will be on core U.S. retail sales report which is expected to rise at close to 0.5% in February. To worry about in the sales pace fell to 0.1%, which may reflect the negative impact of a tax increase on consumers.

 Confidence of Corporate: Also traders will measure of the confidence of the corporation in the U.S. upon its release last quarterly survey of CEOs. The survey results will be related to how much additional employment opportunities from various companies in the U.S.. Previous index hitting a 3-year cliff last fiscal worries. The investors will pay attention to opinions various related CEO upbeat U.S. employment in the last week solid. 

Budget Plan: Attention will also be focused on the release of the budget proposal from Senate Democrats for the first time in 4 years. Budget plan will be aimed to cut about $ 1.9 trillion deficit in the first decades through various program budget cuts and tax increases. Republicans in the House commented that level version of their proposal would balance the budget with a focus on spending. Various analysts estimate the budget negotiations will ultimately result in a compromise in the coming months Sequester.

 Italy & Ireland Auction: Another factor that drives the market is Italian and Irish bond auctions are quite crucial. Italian bond yields are expected to spike up, as the action of the hedge fund managers who prefer to buy Spanish bonds and selling Italian tenor term bonds as a hedge against risk aversion.

Gold Sideways Amid Improving Data And Stimulus Speculation


Gold is moving sideways below the highest level this month in the London session as investors consider the improving economic data against speculation for additional stimulus.

Gold rose yesterday after a member of the board of the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank chief Jens Weidman said that the ECB will maintain its stance for monetary policy accommodative "as far as it is necessary." Global equity markets yesterday 0.5% below the highest level since 2008, before the release of a report today that may showed U.S. retail sales rose last month. And investors cut their investments in the stock that traded gold headed to its lowest level in six months.

"Gold edged up in the middle of the action buy on dip and estimated the additional stimulus measures from the central bank," said Box Commodity Services Ltd.. in Mumbai today in a report. "However, the firmness of the equity markets and the withdrawal of investments in ETP will continue to weigh on gold prices."

S & P 500 Potencially Bullish


Generally, intraday bias of the S & P 500 index movement looks on bullish condition. Technically, the stochastic indicator is in potential bullish condition. If index strengthen up and penetrate resistance at 1551.25 would have a chance to bring index move upwards towards resistance at 1556.42.

Meanwhile, be-alert if bearish signal was appear in index movement. Be-warn, if index weaken and penetrate support at 1546.77 that there is potential index will move downwards towards the next support at 1541.75.


Dow Jones Potentially on Correction Phase, Be-warn Support at 14339


Generally, intraday bias of the Dow Jones index movement looks on bullish condition. Technically, the stochastic indicator is in potential bullish condition. If index strengthen up and penetrate resistance at 14382 would have a chance to bring index move upwards towards resistance at 14432.

Meanwhile, be-alert if bearish signal was appear in index movement. Be-warn, if index weaken and penetrate support at 1439 that there is potential index will move downwards towards the next support at 14291.

Along Mighty Dollar U.S. Economic Outlook Sunny


Market sentiment in the forex market today quite a mixed session from Asia and Europe as a short-term trading action amid lack of key economic data released Tuesday.

Republicans at the U.S. House of Representatives indicate an unveiled plans Sequester alternative tonight to make budget cuts of $ 4.6 trillion in the next decade, while the Democrats in the Senate will also give their own proposals on Wednesday tomorrow which is expected to provide an alternative plan of tax increases and spending cuts.

From the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy continued to surprise positively contributed to the positive catalyst the U.S. dollar, as the macroeconomic conditions in Europe and the UK is quite a contrast after the data reported British manufacturing production fell below estimates and the data indicate Q1 GDP growth will be burdened as acceleration contraction in industrial and manufacturing sectors. Riskier currencies like the euro are also vulnerable to a sell-imposed austerity policies as the euro zone indicate an hamper the pace of recovery from the recession of the European Union.

Observed so far the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% at the level of 82.70, after reaching its highest point at 82.81 and an intraday low at 82.64 daily.

Release Data Limit Appreciation Aussie Gain


After the release of the NAB business confidence survey is lower than the previous data release, which is 1 for the period from February 3 in January. AUD / USD was near weekly high at the 1.0280 level. Currently Aussie at 1.0300. Exchange rate rose 0.45% in the period of one week and -1.06% for a period of one year. ASX Australia fell 0.08% while the U.S. SP500 index closed up 0.32% near a new 5-year high, the highest increase since November 2007.

From a technical perspective the hourly chart shows indicators away from overbought levels but prices were still above the trend line and is above the SMA 20, clearly Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at Fxstreet.com. "In the 4 hours chart, the bullish movement under pressure unless the price stay above 1.0300 area. Currency appreciation is limited, "he added.

Support levels at 1.0250, 1.0220 and 1.0180, while resistance level at 1.0345.

Kospi Continue Correction, Induced Yen


South Korea again relegated to the negative zone in trading Tuesday (12/3) is mainly due to the weakening yen that continues to worry for exporters of ginseng country to compete in the global marketplace.

The automobile sector has been weakened in recent days due to the won continues to struggle to compete with the apparent rate of speed of depreciation of the yen. The Japanese currency has lost nearly 9 percent against the Korean won since the beginning of 2013, and gave Japanese exporters greater profitability than rivals in Korea.

Some big names still appeared strong automotive giant in today's trading as Hyundai Motor, which rose about 1 percent and Kia Motors is still slightly higher around 0.7 percent. Recorded Kopsi index fell -0.28% or -5.59 points at 1997.99 area, while the Kospi index futures slumped -0.95 participate in the range of 263.75 points.

Oil Market Still Wait Data Release


Oil prices moved mix in early Asian session trading. Bearish signal derived from data from China's industry while positive sentiment coming from positive U.S. jobs data, according to Singapore-based trader.

Brent oil will move in the range of $ 109.30-$ 111/barrel related investor anxiety ahead of the market and wait for the oil from the OPEC oil inventory data from the API today (12/03) and EIA tomorrow (13/03), he explained. April Nymex crude oil futures contract rose 11 cents to 92.17/barrel. Brent fell 2 cents to $ 110.20/barrel.

BoJ Governor Candidate Says No Need to Change Target Inflation

 
Candidate for Governor of the Bank of Japan (Bank of Japan/BoJ), Haruhiko Kuroda said the government does not need to change the inflation target of 2 percent or setting a target for consumer prices, excluding food and energy.

"Target price BoJ is currently focused on core prices, which exclude fresh food and energy costs," said the man aged 68, who decided to resign as president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as reported by Reuters on Monday (3/11/2013).


While the core of the Japanese consumer price excluding food and energy, similar to the size of the core consumer price used the United States.

As is known, Kuroda is a proponent of aggressive monetary easing. He often spoke to lawmakers in the upper house should be the policy of the central bank. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hoped, a former top diplomat was doing radical easing now in control of the BoJ to end a nearly two-decade deflationary Japanese twist.

Meanwhile, Japan's machinery orders fell 13 percent in January 2013, the largest decline in eight months. This result is a signal to the upper limit of the company's investment business encourages Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic revival.

Japan returned to growth in the fourth quarter as the yen began to slide, strengthening Abe campaign to end 15 years of deflation and revive the third largest economy in the world.

"Going forward, we expect accelerating consumption, housing and public investment," Devalier said, as quoted by Bloomberg, on Monday (11/03/2013).

"But given the trend of exports is weak, it will take more time before we see a business environment driven by pelamahan yen and increased optimism producers translates into strong corporate investment," he added.

Abundant supplies, Oil prices fell


Oil prices moved down in the Asian trading session. The flood of U.S. oil inventories helped weigh on the development of macro-economic outlook in the country with the world's biggest economy, obviously trader based in Singapore.

Release employment data on Friday (08/03) shows the number of workers increased 236 000 in February, compared with economists' expectations of 160,000. Another factor that allegedly helped depress prices is China economic data releases on the weekend that showed declining retail sales and industrial output, obviously trader.

Nymex crude oil futures to trade in a range of $ 90 - $ 93/barrel in the coming sessions. April Nymex crude oil futures contract fell 22 cents to $ 91.73/barrel. Brent crude fell 38 cents to $ 110.47/barrel.

Yen above 96, Nikkei Lead Asia's Rally


Nikkei - Japan again led the rally in Asian trade earlier in the week (11/3) thanks again helped by a weaker yen which is now increasingly weakened in the range of 96 to the U.S. dollar (USD).

The headline Nikkei index observed to move in the area of ​​12392.81 or achieve a gain of +109.19 points after opening at 12363.09 level and shot up to a high of 12399.76. While the Yen is now perched at around 96.13 after the level dropped to 96.25 per dollar.

Gold Weakens After U.S. Jobs Data Release


Gold futures moved down on Monday while U.S. employment sector data released on estimates positively impact economic growth prospects, and depressed safe-haven buying, despite the central bank is expected to continue to lift the economy in tahumn 2013.

Policy easing from the Federal Reserve has brought gold to a record high in recent years, as investors try to cope with high inflation estimates related to the printing of money the U.S. central bank.

Contract Spot gold fell 0.1% to $ 1,576.04 an ounce, recovering from a low for 2 weeks at the $ 1,560.80 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $ 1,575.40.

Kospi eroded weaker yen

 
He began trading earlier this week (Monday, 11/3) among exporters Korea - South re-injured by the impact of the weakening of the yen - Japanese for Korean and Japanese exporters face to face in competition in some markets.

In addition, the weakening Kospi - South Korea today also due to concerns about inflation in China increased significantly in February, although the data of industrial output and retail sales shrank. China's inflation surge was confirmed that the Chinese authorities need to take policy measures to dampen prices through monetary tightening, which would impact on the shrinkage of economic growth.

Since the beginning of the year, South Korea's automobile sector has been hit hard by the impact of the weakening yen, and today the sector again suffered after the yen dropped back to the level of 96.25 against the U.S. dollar Recorded Kia Motors Corp. stock. fallen to 1.8% and Hyundai Motor Co. dropped to 2.6%.

The major indexes tracked Kospi fell -0.15% or -2.17 points at 2003.60 area, while the Kospi futures down -0.70 points share in the range of 264.30.
 

U.S. Economy Grows 0.1% In Q4



  
The U.S. economy showed almost no growth in the 4th quarter of 2012, according to Commerce Department reported Thursday. U.S. GDP 4 th quarter was revised up to 0.1% of the initial publication of -0.1%, down considerably when compared to growth of 3.1% in the 3rd quarter of last year.

Residential construction is more solid and the increase in exports was judged to have pushed growth into positive territory, and managed to offset a big drop in government spending and a significant slowdown in business inventories.
Shopping for new home construction was revised upward to 17.5% from 15.3%. Export revised to down 3.9% from the initial publication showed a decline of 5.7%, as well as imports was revised to down 4.5% from the 3.2% decline.


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