The Fed's: Confusion of Interest Rate

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The Fed is considering raising interest rates in a given period of time. Meanwhile, Dennis Lockhart optimistic US economy will be fine, although the Fed is keeping interest rates until the middle of next year. Lockhart also consider inflation also not meet the target of 2 percent. Personally he would like to see growth of 3 percent in 2015 and the percentage of the unemployment rate fell between 5.25 to 5.5 at the end of 2015.

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U.S Market Review on December 5, 2014

InvestClinic - In the US session today will be 3 to data released by that Non-Farm Employment Change in estimate rose from 214K into 231K, the trade balance of -43.0B strengthened to -41.3B, while unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% figure.

 
Previous dragi has not provide a strong enough signal of additional monetary stimulus, so that the EU has strengthened. The ECB also cut its growth forecast for the euro zone next year to 1.0% of the projection in September by 1.6%. 

Inflation expectations for 2015 are also reduced to only 0.7% from the previous 1.1%, well below the ECB's target of close to 2%. based on the description above can be concluded that for the news tonight in the prediction would side with the USD. For long-term euro also allegedly would have strengthened, if the issue of QE will actually be applied.

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U.S session December 03, 2014

U.S Session News Release Today.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is the most awaited news by traders, because the effect of the news can be categorized great, so that made reference to gain, with expectations of 223k or lower than the previous of 230K so it is likely the USD weakened on this day. This is supported by other data releases such forecasts Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, the Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Final Services PMI which is expected to be worse than before.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, predicted improved from the previous 57.1 to 57.5. Market participants are also still waiting for comments from FOMC members that Plosser and Brainard. Until this article was written, the USD/JPY is in a position 119.44 or rose 30 points on the day.

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Gold On Bearish Pressure, Be Alert 1563.10

The movement of Gold in hourly chart seen is on bearish bias. Preference for today is bearish with 2 alternative scenarios. First, watch the Support 1563.10, if it breaks it potential trigger continue bearish movement to the range 1553.50.  

Second, Watch area between the resistance 1583.43  and resistance 1572.70, this area can be key for hunt bearish signal/pattern. If bearish signal/pattern appears in this area, it potentially triggers bearish movement aim the support 1563.10.

Ignore the preference if the resistance 1583.43 breaks, because bias bearish has change to bullish, within possibility price move upward to the range 1594.16-1603.76.

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AUD/USD remains under pressure

AUD/USD remains under pressure. Initial support is at 1.0395 which if breaks might amplify the bearish pressure that could push AUD/USD down to 1.0372 – 1.0345.

Hourly stochastic and CCI are still mixed, but it is better to prepare alternative strategy in case bullish correction occurs to the resistance area at 1.0434 – 1.0457. Bearish signal that might confirm within the area could trigger a fallback move to 1.0419 – 1.0395.

The intraday bias will turn to bullish only if the resistance at 1.0475 breaks. In that case, AUD/USD will get the chance to move up to 1.0473 – 1.0496.

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5 Important Things Coming to New York Session

Factors Fueling U.S. stocks and CFDs, Wednesday, March 20:

Jitters Cyprus: Cyprus Tensions are moving towards bankruptcy continues after parliament rejected Cyprus EU bailout terms. So far, banks in Cyprus are still closed until the weekend, at the same time the ECB has threatened to end emergency aid to troubled banks in the country. However there is still hope that Russia will disburse funds as it had been given to Cyprus before.

BoE Minutes: Pound jumped after struck by the BoE minutes showed that one of the reasons why the central bank did not increase the stimulus is concern about inflationary pressures in the event of additional QE BoE officials feared would lead to further weakening pound sterling thus giving the perception that the central bank failed to maintain commitment to low inflation levels. 

Fed Statement: The focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's statement after the FOMC meeting, which is expected to continue to maintain the bond purchase program of $ 85 billion per month. In addition, the market participants will be waiting for the economy and interest rate projections the Fed, particularly the unemployment outlook, in December, forecast the U.S. unemployment rate was in the range 7.4% - 7.7%. If the Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate, it will signal the strengthening of the U.S. labor market.

FedEx Earnings: Investors can also measure the pulse of the economy through FedEx earnings are expected to shrink profit over the previous year, largely due to higher jet fuel prices. Share CFDs FedEx alone has risen 17% since the beginning of this year.

Lennar Results: Signal recovery housing sector is also expected to contribute to earnings Lennar. Home builders are expected to increase sales and profits and new orders surge. Share CFDs Lennar gained 57% so far in the last year.

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Important Things Before the Open Market

• AUD has slipped back against the U.S. dollar in the early session of the Asia-Pacific region Friday earlier closure area above 1.04, last at 1.0354, off a session today at 1.0341, related to concerns from Cyprus. After falling in, it seems buying players start popping dare to catch a falling EUR prices during the European session. The euro itself has penetrated the 1:29 area just to survive near the area.

• The majority of today's Asian bourses fell due to appear in a massive sell-off risky assets after a decision euro zone to force the depositors in the country Cyprus to contribute to the bailout, triggering fears that direct transmission of the problem to other countries in the region .

• U.S. Crude Oil contract moved down more than $ 1 per barrel in early Asian trading session on Monday, hit by a stronger U.S. dollar.

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5 Important Things Coming to New York Session

JCPenney: JCPenney will get a second chance to reassure investors when the CFO Ken Hannah gave a statement at the conference retailer. Share CFDs JCPenney has plunged 20% after it reported sales fall by 30% last quarter.

 Retail Sales: The next focus will be on core U.S. retail sales report which is expected to rise at close to 0.5% in February. To worry about in the sales pace fell to 0.1%, which may reflect the negative impact of a tax increase on consumers.

 Confidence of Corporate: Also traders will measure of the confidence of the corporation in the U.S. upon its release last quarterly survey of CEOs. The survey results will be related to how much additional employment opportunities from various companies in the U.S.. Previous index hitting a 3-year cliff last fiscal worries. The investors will pay attention to opinions various related CEO upbeat U.S. employment in the last week solid. 

Budget Plan: Attention will also be focused on the release of the budget proposal from Senate Democrats for the first time in 4 years. Budget plan will be aimed to cut about $ 1.9 trillion deficit in the first decades through various program budget cuts and tax increases. Republicans in the House commented that level version of their proposal would balance the budget with a focus on spending. Various analysts estimate the budget negotiations will ultimately result in a compromise in the coming months Sequester.

 Italy & Ireland Auction: Another factor that drives the market is Italian and Irish bond auctions are quite crucial. Italian bond yields are expected to spike up, as the action of the hedge fund managers who prefer to buy Spanish bonds and selling Italian tenor term bonds as a hedge against risk aversion.

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Gold Sideways Amid Improving Data And Stimulus Speculation

Gold is moving sideways below the highest level this month in the London session as investors consider the improving economic data against speculation for additional stimulus.

Gold rose yesterday after a member of the board of the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank chief Jens Weidman said that the ECB will maintain its stance for monetary policy accommodative "as far as it is necessary." Global equity markets yesterday 0.5% below the highest level since 2008, before the release of a report today that may showed U.S. retail sales rose last month. And investors cut their investments in the stock that traded gold headed to its lowest level in six months.

"Gold edged up in the middle of the action buy on dip and estimated the additional stimulus measures from the central bank," said Box Commodity Services Ltd.. in Mumbai today in a report. "However, the firmness of the equity markets and the withdrawal of investments in ETP will continue to weigh on gold prices."

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Dow Jones Potentially on Correction Phase, Be-warn Support at 14339

Generally, intraday bias of the Dow Jones index movement looks on bullish condition. Technically, the stochastic indicator is in potential bullish condition. If index strengthen up and penetrate resistance at 14382 would have a chance to bring index move upwards towards resistance at 14432.

Meanwhile, be-alert if bearish signal was appear in index movement. Be-warn, if index weaken and penetrate support at 1439 that there is potential index will move downwards towards the next support at 14291.

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Kospi Continue Correction, Induced Yen

South Korea again relegated to the negative zone in trading Tuesday (12/3) is mainly due to the weakening yen that continues to worry for exporters of ginseng country to compete in the global marketplace.

The automobile sector has been weakened in recent days due to the won continues to struggle to compete with the apparent rate of speed of depreciation of the yen. The Japanese currency has lost nearly 9 percent against the Korean won since the beginning of 2013, and gave Japanese exporters greater profitability than rivals in Korea.

Some big names still appeared strong automotive giant in today's trading as Hyundai Motor, which rose about 1 percent and Kia Motors is still slightly higher around 0.7 percent. Recorded Kopsi index fell -0.28% or -5.59 points at 1997.99 area, while the Kospi index futures slumped -0.95 participate in the range of 263.75 points.

source 

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Forex Market Hours, to know running market session

This time, I want to share to the forex market hours. This application is useful to know the session or at the market that are running, such as the Tokyo session, London, New York, Sydney.
 

How to use it:
1. Set the time zone GMT according to your zone (upper right corner)
2. In the lower right corner there is information on your zone clock
3. Figures for that column shows the clock on your zone below which no active market information.
 

Example:
I use GMT +8 then in that column shows: 

-- 16.00 - 24.00 means that an active market is LONDON.  

-- 21:00 to 05:00 means that an active market is NEW YORK.

-- Etc.

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