The Fed's: Confusion of Interest Rate

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The Fed is considering raising interest rates in a given period of time. Meanwhile, Dennis Lockhart optimistic US economy will be fine, although the Fed is keeping interest rates until the middle of next year. Lockhart also consider inflation also not meet the target of 2 percent. Personally he would like to see growth of 3 percent in 2015 and the percentage of the unemployment rate fell between 5.25 to 5.5 at the end of 2015.

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U.S Market Review on December 5, 2014

InvestClinic - In the US session today will be 3 to data released by that Non-Farm Employment Change in estimate rose from 214K into 231K, the trade balance of -43.0B strengthened to -41.3B, while unemployment is expected to remain at 5.8% figure.

 
Previous dragi has not provide a strong enough signal of additional monetary stimulus, so that the EU has strengthened. The ECB also cut its growth forecast for the euro zone next year to 1.0% of the projection in September by 1.6%. 

Inflation expectations for 2015 are also reduced to only 0.7% from the previous 1.1%, well below the ECB's target of close to 2%. based on the description above can be concluded that for the news tonight in the prediction would side with the USD. For long-term euro also allegedly would have strengthened, if the issue of QE will actually be applied.

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U.S. Market Review on December 04, 2014

American session possibility USD will move randomly. this is caused by unemployment claims data will be released today. in addition, the euro zone is currently in a difficult time, Mario Draghi hesitated to purchase government bonds.
 

According to daily news from Reuters, the Fed's Fischer Says buys government bonds by the ECB would have positive effects, Fischer also suggested the ECB did the same thing as the Fed's doing, so expect a positive effect for the eurozone. Until this article is issued, EUR/USD is still stagnant at 1.2315 position, predicted Euro will weaken against the US dollar within a few days up to 1.2229.

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U.S session December 03, 2014

U.S Session News Release Today.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is the most awaited news by traders, because the effect of the news can be categorized great, so that made reference to gain, with expectations of 223k or lower than the previous of 230K so it is likely the USD weakened on this day. This is supported by other data releases such forecasts Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, the Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Final Services PMI which is expected to be worse than before.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, predicted improved from the previous 57.1 to 57.5. Market participants are also still waiting for comments from FOMC members that Plosser and Brainard. Until this article was written, the USD/JPY is in a position 119.44 or rose 30 points on the day.

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Market: Important Notice on New York Sesion

Market Tone: Aussie and British pound soared as economic data topped estimates successfully trigger a rally two currencies. In Australia the rate of GDP reported up 0.6% above the estimated 0.5% and a strong reason for the RBA to remain neutral on monetary policy yesterday. While the services sector is estimated that the UK rocketed beyond confirming the UK economic momentum despite the unemployment rate is still relatively high. Separately European regional shares and U.S. stock market futures are still in Syria worries overshadowed pressure.

Fed's Beige Book: The focus of investors will be focused on the release of the Fed's Beige Book showed economic conditions that can last the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The economic data will be an important input ahead of the FOMC monetary policy meeting in 2 weeks mendetang. Beige Book also can provide a variety of information analysts to predict whether the Fed will embark reduction program of bond purchases worth $ 85 billion per month.

Fed Speakers: Attention will then be focused on two speeches scheduled Fed officials, among others, San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota who can provide further clues about the direction of the Fed's monetary.

Samsung: Samsung will launch the smartwatch newest product, called Galaxy Gear at Consumer Electronics Exhibition in Berlin. In addition it will also show off the tablet Samsung Galaxy Note 3 terabrunya. At the same time Sony also will show debuts smartphone Xperia Z1. Sony and Samsung hopes to beat the latest iPhone products which will be launched on the 10th September.

U.S. Auto Industry: The U.S. auto industry will report monthly sales rate for August is expected to rise to 15.5 million units, consistent with the level of sales in July. Overall vehicle sales in the U.S. are stabilizing.

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5 Important Things Coming to New York Session

Factors Fueling U.S. stocks and CFDs, Wednesday, March 20:

Jitters Cyprus: Cyprus Tensions are moving towards bankruptcy continues after parliament rejected Cyprus EU bailout terms. So far, banks in Cyprus are still closed until the weekend, at the same time the ECB has threatened to end emergency aid to troubled banks in the country. However there is still hope that Russia will disburse funds as it had been given to Cyprus before.

BoE Minutes: Pound jumped after struck by the BoE minutes showed that one of the reasons why the central bank did not increase the stimulus is concern about inflationary pressures in the event of additional QE BoE officials feared would lead to further weakening pound sterling thus giving the perception that the central bank failed to maintain commitment to low inflation levels. 

Fed Statement: The focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's statement after the FOMC meeting, which is expected to continue to maintain the bond purchase program of $ 85 billion per month. In addition, the market participants will be waiting for the economy and interest rate projections the Fed, particularly the unemployment outlook, in December, forecast the U.S. unemployment rate was in the range 7.4% - 7.7%. If the Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate, it will signal the strengthening of the U.S. labor market.

FedEx Earnings: Investors can also measure the pulse of the economy through FedEx earnings are expected to shrink profit over the previous year, largely due to higher jet fuel prices. Share CFDs FedEx alone has risen 17% since the beginning of this year.

Lennar Results: Signal recovery housing sector is also expected to contribute to earnings Lennar. Home builders are expected to increase sales and profits and new orders surge. Share CFDs Lennar gained 57% so far in the last year.

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Japan’s Nikkei Jumps 2 pct on Exporters, Recovers From Cyprus Blow

Japan’s Nikkei average rebounded 2 percent on Tuesday, regaining some ground lost in the previous session as fears receded that a controversial bailout proposal for Cyprus could reignite the euro zone crisis.

Analysts said that the disruption to the Japanese market from the unusual bailout plan for Cyprus seems to have run its course, although the Japanese equities market is prone to volatility because it is vulnerable to a rise in the yen when global market uncertainty increases.

“It looks like the bailout issue will be contained in Cyprus itself and it probably won’t spread to the euro zone. As the Japanese market was rallying lately, Monday’s selling served as a good opportunity for correction,” said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities. “But European debt issues will likely take years to be resolved, and we need to be prepared for a sell-off like this again as the Japanese market could easily get hit by a strong yen when investors buy the yen.”

The Nikkei added 247.60 points to 12,468.23 after sliding 2.7 percent on Monday, its biggest one-day drop in 10 months. The index is just 0.74 percent away from a 4-1/2 year high of 12,560.95 marked last Friday.

Ahead of a parliamentary vote in Cyprus that will either secure the island’s financial rescue or threaten default, euro zone ministers have urged Cyprus to let smaller savers escape a controversial levy on bank deposits.

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Euro Falls Toward 4-Month Low Versus Dollar; Drops Against Yen

The euro slid toward the lowest in almost four months against the dollar after the Cypriot parliament voted down a bank-deposit levy needed to secure a bailout, risking renewed tumult in the currency bloc.

The 17-nation currency fell for a fourth day versus the yen as an official familiar with the matter said European policy makers in Cyprus discussed further capital controls and extending a bank holiday through to the end of the week. The yen and dollar rose against most major peers as investors sought havens on concern Europe’s crisis may slide out of control.

“It’s an impasse with the Cyprus parliament rejecting the proposals from the eurogroup, and they will have to engage in further negotiations,” said Hans Kunnen, the Sydney-based chief economist at St. George Bank Ltd. “This just adds to the weight against the euro.”

The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2872 as of 9:25 a.m. in Singapore from $1.2882 in New York yesterday, when it touched $1.2844, the weakest since Nov. 22. The shared currency declined 0.3 percent to 122.18 yen and traded little changed at 1.2196 Swiss francs following a 0.5 percent drop yesterday. The dollar slid 0.3 percent to 94.92 yen. 

Japanese financial markets are closed today for a national holiday.

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Important Things Before the Open Market

• AUD has slipped back against the U.S. dollar in the early session of the Asia-Pacific region Friday earlier closure area above 1.04, last at 1.0354, off a session today at 1.0341, related to concerns from Cyprus. After falling in, it seems buying players start popping dare to catch a falling EUR prices during the European session. The euro itself has penetrated the 1:29 area just to survive near the area.

• The majority of today's Asian bourses fell due to appear in a massive sell-off risky assets after a decision euro zone to force the depositors in the country Cyprus to contribute to the bailout, triggering fears that direct transmission of the problem to other countries in the region .

• U.S. Crude Oil contract moved down more than $ 1 per barrel in early Asian trading session on Monday, hit by a stronger U.S. dollar.

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Investors Focus This Week Asia focused on Japan Trade Data

Focus on Asian investors this week will be focused on Japan's trade data which will be a test of the new Japanese government policy, other than that attention will be focused on earnings reports China's energy giant, CNOOC and Sinopec.

Japan's trade data will provide additional evidence whether Japanese exporters benefit from PM Shinzo Abe added that maintaining the weakening Japanese yen. In addition, the investors will also see Japan's trade report as a measure of global demand.

Japanese Parliament finally approved the new management at the Bank of Japan and the government took measures to support monetary policy in an effort to push back the third largest economy in the world.

The upper house gave the green light to Haruhiko Kuroda as the Governor of the Bank of Japan, a former head of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to undertake aggressive measures of monetary easing after its predecessor failed to change the fate of the Japanese economy.

The Star Online Friday (03/15/2013) that includes news, Japanese House of Representatives also approved Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso as deputy governor accompanied Kuroda, unanimously came despite warnings from the opposition who oppose Iwata.

After receiving approval from the parliament, the new management team of Bank of Japan will take their position next week to discuss the focus of their first policy next month.

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Expectations decrease RBA Interest Rate Reduced Reference

At the end of last week, the Aussie managed to record the strongest weekly gain in 6-months ahead of the release of the meeting minutes Reserve Bank of Australia on 19 March that might provide clues about why the policy makers to keep interest rates unchanged for the 3rd time in a row.

While the data surge biggest job in 13 years, seen in the data on Thursday, has forced traders to trim expectations for RBA rate cuts.

'Expectations RBA rate cuts have reduced quite substantially, leading to a strong rebound in Aussie. I think the RBA will be more cautious, they do not want to lower interest rates too far and too fast. "Said Derek Mumford, a director at Rochford Capital in Sydney.

Data this week's data to be released from this kangaroo country is New Motor Vehicle Sales and Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

When this news was revealed, the AUD / USD traded higher at 1.0374 the highest price.

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Bank of Cyprus Deposit Levies Applicable Early This Week

Levies on bank deposits in Cyprus will go into effect earlier this week Monday, March 18, 2013. Where Cyprus will take immediate measures to prevent the transfer of electronic money over the weekend.

'Contribution to financial stability Cyprus, seems only to require contributions from all holders of deposits, "said Dutch Finance Minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting in Brussels, as reported by Reuters (16/03/2013).

In return for emergency loans, Cyprus agreed to increase the tax rate by 2.5 percentage points institutions to 12.5 percent. And this is expected to be able to increase revenue Cyprus to limit the size of the loan required from the euro zone and keeping public debt.

And Dijsselbloem said under this program, the Mediterranean island nation's debt would fall to 100 percent of economic output in 2020.

Traded over the weekend euro hit one-week highs against the U.S. dollar after data showed a lack of U.S. inflation, which will make room for the Federal Reserve to keep QE3.

The euro was also supported by the results of the meeting of European leaders, who opened the way for finance ministers to preparing a bailout package for Cyprus.

While the size of the banking sector has complicated the Cyprus problem with the ratio of deposits that reach 8x GDP. Initial assessment needs help predict Cyprus € 17 billion which € 10 billion will be used to stabilize the banking sector. It's certainly big enough load for the Cyprus economy value only reached € 18 billion.

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5 Important Things Coming to New York Session

JCPenney: JCPenney will get a second chance to reassure investors when the CFO Ken Hannah gave a statement at the conference retailer. Share CFDs JCPenney has plunged 20% after it reported sales fall by 30% last quarter.

 Retail Sales: The next focus will be on core U.S. retail sales report which is expected to rise at close to 0.5% in February. To worry about in the sales pace fell to 0.1%, which may reflect the negative impact of a tax increase on consumers.

 Confidence of Corporate: Also traders will measure of the confidence of the corporation in the U.S. upon its release last quarterly survey of CEOs. The survey results will be related to how much additional employment opportunities from various companies in the U.S.. Previous index hitting a 3-year cliff last fiscal worries. The investors will pay attention to opinions various related CEO upbeat U.S. employment in the last week solid. 

Budget Plan: Attention will also be focused on the release of the budget proposal from Senate Democrats for the first time in 4 years. Budget plan will be aimed to cut about $ 1.9 trillion deficit in the first decades through various program budget cuts and tax increases. Republicans in the House commented that level version of their proposal would balance the budget with a focus on spending. Various analysts estimate the budget negotiations will ultimately result in a compromise in the coming months Sequester.

 Italy & Ireland Auction: Another factor that drives the market is Italian and Irish bond auctions are quite crucial. Italian bond yields are expected to spike up, as the action of the hedge fund managers who prefer to buy Spanish bonds and selling Italian tenor term bonds as a hedge against risk aversion.

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Gold Sideways Amid Improving Data And Stimulus Speculation

Gold is moving sideways below the highest level this month in the London session as investors consider the improving economic data against speculation for additional stimulus.

Gold rose yesterday after a member of the board of the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank chief Jens Weidman said that the ECB will maintain its stance for monetary policy accommodative "as far as it is necessary." Global equity markets yesterday 0.5% below the highest level since 2008, before the release of a report today that may showed U.S. retail sales rose last month. And investors cut their investments in the stock that traded gold headed to its lowest level in six months.

"Gold edged up in the middle of the action buy on dip and estimated the additional stimulus measures from the central bank," said Box Commodity Services Ltd.. in Mumbai today in a report. "However, the firmness of the equity markets and the withdrawal of investments in ETP will continue to weigh on gold prices."

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OPEC: Demand Growth Outlook Unchanged In 2013

World oil demand is set to grow as much as 800,000 barrels per day in 2013, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday in its monthly report for the month of March. Estimate was unchanged from the previous forecast and in line with the rate of growth seen in 2012. 

OPEC said the hope for a large chunk of petumbuhan expected to come from China, the Middle East, followed by other Asian countries and Latin America. Oil demand from countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCDC), which consists of the developed countries in the world, is expected to fall forward, but less than in 2012.

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Solid Gold, Physical Gold Demand Sustained Asia

Gold futures soared associated physical gold demand and gold-based ETF assets on concern the slow pace of economic recovery after the U.S. failed to reach policy makers to avoid removal budget kesepaktan known as Sequesteration.
Republicans in the U.S. House level indicate an alternative plan to introduce on Tuesday as part of a removal program budget of $ 4.6 trillion in the first decade, the proposal will then be followed by spending cuts from Democrats in the Senate.
Another positive catalyst is the prospect of additional easing from the Bank of England after data on manufacturing and industrial output fell below estimates, while in Japan, rumors of emergency BoJ meeting helped to trigger speculation of aggressive monetary easing faster than earlier expectations.
Tensions market in risky asset markets also rose after the expected Italy will fail to meet the deadline of economic reform in April in Brussels due to political uncertainty post-election some time ago. Where this little add interest to the safe-haven asset gold.
Observed so far Gold spot price rose 0.70% to $ 1,592.92 per troy ounce, after reaching its highest point at $ 1,593.71 and an intraday low of $ 1,580.36 daily per troy ounce. Technically, the intraday bias to bullish gold, but need to watch out for correction down to reduce the overbought / oversold. Resistant 1613 - 1620 - 1625, Support 1584 to 1576 - 1571.

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Along Mighty Dollar U.S. Economic Outlook Sunny

Market sentiment in the forex market today quite a mixed session from Asia and Europe as a short-term trading action amid lack of key economic data released Tuesday.

Republicans at the U.S. House of Representatives indicate an unveiled plans Sequester alternative tonight to make budget cuts of $ 4.6 trillion in the next decade, while the Democrats in the Senate will also give their own proposals on Wednesday tomorrow which is expected to provide an alternative plan of tax increases and spending cuts.

From the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy continued to surprise positively contributed to the positive catalyst the U.S. dollar, as the macroeconomic conditions in Europe and the UK is quite a contrast after the data reported British manufacturing production fell below estimates and the data indicate Q1 GDP growth will be burdened as acceleration contraction in industrial and manufacturing sectors. Riskier currencies like the euro are also vulnerable to a sell-imposed austerity policies as the euro zone indicate an hamper the pace of recovery from the recession of the European Union.

Observed so far the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% at the level of 82.70, after reaching its highest point at 82.81 and an intraday low at 82.64 daily.

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Release Data Limit Appreciation Aussie Gain

After the release of the NAB business confidence survey is lower than the previous data release, which is 1 for the period from February 3 in January. AUD / USD was near weekly high at the 1.0280 level. Currently Aussie at 1.0300. Exchange rate rose 0.45% in the period of one week and -1.06% for a period of one year. ASX Australia fell 0.08% while the U.S. SP500 index closed up 0.32% near a new 5-year high, the highest increase since November 2007.

From a technical perspective the hourly chart shows indicators away from overbought levels but prices were still above the trend line and is above the SMA 20, clearly Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at Fxstreet.com. "In the 4 hours chart, the bullish movement under pressure unless the price stay above 1.0300 area. Currency appreciation is limited, "he added.

Support levels at 1.0250, 1.0220 and 1.0180, while resistance level at 1.0345.

source 

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Kospi Continue Correction, Induced Yen

South Korea again relegated to the negative zone in trading Tuesday (12/3) is mainly due to the weakening yen that continues to worry for exporters of ginseng country to compete in the global marketplace.

The automobile sector has been weakened in recent days due to the won continues to struggle to compete with the apparent rate of speed of depreciation of the yen. The Japanese currency has lost nearly 9 percent against the Korean won since the beginning of 2013, and gave Japanese exporters greater profitability than rivals in Korea.

Some big names still appeared strong automotive giant in today's trading as Hyundai Motor, which rose about 1 percent and Kia Motors is still slightly higher around 0.7 percent. Recorded Kopsi index fell -0.28% or -5.59 points at 1997.99 area, while the Kospi index futures slumped -0.95 participate in the range of 263.75 points.

source 

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Oil Market Still Wait Data Release

Oil prices moved mix in early Asian session trading. Bearish signal derived from data from China's industry while positive sentiment coming from positive U.S. jobs data, according to Singapore-based trader.

Brent oil will move in the range of $ 109.30-$ 111/barrel related investor anxiety ahead of the market and wait for the oil from the OPEC oil inventory data from the API today (12/03) and EIA tomorrow (13/03), he explained. April Nymex crude oil futures contract rose 11 cents to 92.17/barrel. Brent fell 2 cents to $ 110.20/barrel.

source 

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